<aside> ℹ️ "Betting" is a strategic approach to planning where the outcomes are defined, commitments are made, and the risks are capped. The key aspects of betting include defining a payout, committing resources for a set period with no interruptions, and setting a limit on potential losses.

Bet Components:

  1. Problem — The raw idea, a use case, or something we’ve seen that motivates us to work on this
  2. Appetite — How much time we want to spend and how that constrains the solution
  3. Solution — The core elements we came up with, presented in a form that’s easy for people to immediately understand (breadboard / shaping)
  4. Rabbit holes — Details about the solution worth calling out to avoid problems
  5. No-gos — Anything specifically excluded from the concept: functionality or use cases we intentionally aren’t covering to fit the appetite or make the problem tractable

Questions to ask

  1. Does the problem matter?
  2. Is the appetite right?
  3. Is the solution attractive?
  4. Is this the right time?
  5. Are the right people available? </aside>

The meaning of a bet

We talk about “betting” instead of planning because it sets different expectations.

First, bets have a payout. We’re not just filling a time box with tasks until it’s full. We’re not throwing two weeks toward a feature and hoping for incremental progress. We intentionally shape work into a six-week box so there’s something meaningful finished at the end. The pitch defines a specific payout that makes the bet worth making.

Second, bets are commitments. If we bet six weeks, then we commit to giving the team the entire six weeks to work exclusively on that thing with no interruptions. We’re not trying to optimize every hour of a programmer’s time. We’re looking at the bigger movement of progress on the whole product after the six weeks.

Third, a smart bet has a cap on the downside. If we bet six weeks on something, the most we can lose is six weeks. We don’t allow ourselves to get into a situation where we’re spending multiples of the original estimate for something that isn’t worth that price.